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Why Is Domestic Oil Output Headed for Back-to-Back Records?
Because the government’s own forecast now shows consecutive annual highs after 2025 already set a mark. In its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration raised the path for U.S. Crude Oil, including lease condensate, to an average of 13.83 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.26 million barrels per day in 2027. The Department of Energy publicly flagged the 2026 figure as a record. EIA also projects quarterly output of 14.39 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2027.
What the September STEO Changed
The August outlook had called for 13.80 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.15 million in 2027. September added about 30,000 barrels a day to 2026 and about 110,000 barrels a day to 2027. The 2025 annual average sits near 13.7 million barrels per day. That means the 2027 annual forecast is about 600,000 barrels per day above 2025. EIA’s tables have never shown an annual or monthly average at or above 14 million barrels per day. The 2027 path would be the first sustained crossing of that line.
The quarterly ladder is 13.88 million in the third quarter of 2026, 14.02 million in the fourth quarter, 14.12 million in early 2027, 14.27 million in the middle quarters, and 14.39 million in the fourth quarter. First-half 2026 production already averaged about 13.7 million barrels per day, two percent above the same period in 2025.
Where the Barrels Come From
Most of the expansion is concentrated in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and in the Federal Gulf of America. EIA forecasts Permian output near 6.8 million barrels per day in 2026, about three percent above 2025. Gulf production rose about 200,000 barrels per day in the first half after four major projects — Shenandoah, Ballymore, Whale, and Salamanca — came online. Alaska is projected near 450,000 barrels per day. For 2027, EIA assigns the Lower 48 onshore, excluding the Gulf, about 11.87 million of the 14.26 million total.
Prices and the Global Backdrop
The same outlook puts Brent near $91 a barrel on average in 2026 and $74 in 2027 as inventories rebuild. Retail gasoline is projected near $3.84 a gallon in 2026 and $3.35 in 2027.
Strategic Implication of a 14-Million-Barrel Plateau
U.S. Crude Oil at these levels changes the country’s position in a tight 2026 market and a looser 2027 market. Additional domestic barrels reduce import dependence and add exportable supply when Middle East flows are still rebuilding. U.S. Crude Oil growth of roughly 600,000 barrels per day versus 2025 is large enough to matter for inventories. The forecast is the official baseline. If Permian productivity and Gulf ramp-ups hold, U.S. Crude Oil will print records in both years on the books EIA uses. The published path is unambiguous: U.S. Crude Oil is projected to set a record in 2026 and a higher record in 2027, finishing that year at 14.39 million barrels per day.
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Why Is Domestic Oil Output Headed for Back-to-Back Records?
Because the government’s own forecast now shows consecutive annual highs after 2025 already set a mark. In its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration raised the path for U.S. Crude Oil, including lease condensate, to an average of 13.83 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.26 million barrels per day in 2027. The Department of Energy publicly flagged the 2026 figure as a record. EIA also projects quarterly output of 14.39 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2027.
